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A better analogy might be a builder contracted to build a house. He doesn't know at the outset exactly what materials he's going to get to work with and there's a rival builder determined to knock as much of it down as possible. On top of that there's some guy from the council who might or might not like the look of whatever you can do who makes you change the plans every few weeks.

Using your experience you can make a educated guess at how much it will all cost and, on average, you'll probably be right. On the other hand, the chances are you'll be miles out on an individual case.

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