Centrist governments in the west have failed their citizens, enabling the rise of populism and a retreat from democracy. So believes Lord (William) Hague of Richmond, leader of the Conservative party from 1997 to 2001 and a former UK foreign secretary.
In conversation with IBA executive director Dr Mark Ellis, Hague traced the evolution of the international order since 1945 and reflected on the violent geopolitical turbulence of the last decade.
‘At the end of the Cold War, from 1990 onwards, we really thought law, liberal democracy and globalisation were triumphant,’ he said. ‘Western democracy was completely secure and international law was ever more inviolate. We can call that chapter “Excitement with a US-led equilibrium”.
‘Since about 2015, we have entered a new chapter. So far, the story of this chapter is “democracy in retreat”. Democracies are turning into quasi-democracies, and into autocracy.’
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Hague was asked why so many voters in the west want to ‘burn the whole system down’ - and what he would do as a centre-right politician to restore faith and stability.
‘We haven’t done very well at maintaining the “contract” with [voters],’ he replied. ‘We’re expecting them to live in a framework of law and democracy and to trust their leaders. But did we consult them enough about some of the big changes that were brought about in their lives? Probably not. Do they feel included in the rising prosperity of the world? Probably not.
‘All the people in this room..could live anywhere in the world probably, and make their living. Most people, however, are rooted somewhere and feel really threatened by migration, by slower economic growth. Their children look likely worse off than they were at the same age, less able to buy a house.
’So how do you deliver? Well, the housing has to be there. And there is an opportunity in the arrival of AI. We don’t really know what AI’s economic effect will be, but it’s certainly an opportunity. to transform the public sector, to drive the productivity of businesses.’
The United States has turned from being architect of the post-WW2 international order into its arsonist, Hague added. ‘We’re coming up to the midterm elections, four weeks today. And the main activity before these elections has been to gerrymander the boundaries in order to try to fix the results. It looks like the voters are not having that and that the result might even be counterproductive. But the level of that is what both parties have been reduced to in America.’
Hague described the attack by US and Israel on Iran as a ‘gargantuan policy mistake’ that will be felt long after the oil price comes back down. While achieving none of its military objectives, the US has 'damaged the world economy, left its armed forces short of critical weaponry at a time of growing international tensions, and emboldened Russia'.
Calling for more support for Ukraine, and backing the use of frozen Russian state assets to equip the country, Hague said the coming winter will be the most violent of nearly five years of war. ‘You might think my remarks have been “centrist”, but on national defence I’m very conservative and very critical of Labour governments in Britain for not moving quickly enough on this,’ he said.
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