Most people now agree that some sort of recessionary chill is afoot, but nobody has much of an idea how deep it is likely to be and how long it will last.One thing everyone agrees is that the 11 September terrorist attacks on the US were a catalyst rather than a trigger.Greg Abrahams, a director of private practice recruitment with TMP QD Legal, says the change started in the second quarter of this year.'From the beginning of April things changed quite dramatically, with UK firms and some US firms becoming far fussier about who they take on, and taking on far fewer people.'Just to confuse matters, a recent salary survey by recruitment consultancy Michael Page's -- which used data collated before 11 September -- suggested that supply of lawyers was the greatest threat to the legal market, rather than impending recession (see [2001] Gazette, 29 November, 1).Peter Thompson, legal operations director of Michael Page, says most firms are playing a waiting game on recruitment until the economic figures early next year give a clearer indication of the economy's direction.

If the figures are bad, there could be a spurt of redundancies; if they are good, recruitment may start again.Nigel Boardman, head of corporate at City firm Slaughter and May, says that across the City there is a recruitment freeze, though he modestly discounts his own firm: 'We haven't got a freeze as such, though we are recruiting at a slower rate.'It is perhaps unsurprising that the first redundancies have arisen at US firms, Mr Boardman says: 'UK firms tend to downsize by giving people aggressive employment reviews, whereas US firms just sack people.'Mr Abrahams says the current situation looks like a return to the last dip of 1996.

He says: 'There are roughly 70 larger commercial firms in the City.

Nine months ago, they were all recruiting middle-level assistants, now a quarter are.'This is affecting private practice assistants, many of whom are putting themselves forward for new jobs, he says, because they 'fear the axe falling in the current cycle', and are therefore 'being productive in their career management'.

In other words, trying to jump before they are pushed.However, the real stars are staying firmly put, capitalising on the goodwill they have and playing it safe, he adds.

City firms still need to recruit, but they are stalling as they await the moment to do so, according to Mr Abrahams, who calls this syndrome 'decision-making paralysis'.Mr Boardman says it is not down to a paralysis, saying: 'It's just that firms have decided not to recruit.'He explains: 'It's not related to the war, it's a general slump that began before 11 September.

Merger and acquisition activity is down by 50% since May.'At partner level, Mr Abrahams says recruitment is still buoyant.

He spends 70% of his time dealing with partner hires, and is clear where the demand is.

'In the downturn, it's the rainmakers who everyone is eager to get.

In boom times, work comes to the law firms, during the downturn rainmakers are essential to bring the work in.'Julian Stone, a director of in-house recruitment with Garfield Robbins International, says 11 September accelerated the downturn to total slowdown.He says banks are laying off heavily, though they will probably be re-hiring again within months.

This is obviously affecting the in-house market, and lawyers are 'very cautious about investment bank positions at the moment'.But the in-house market in general has undergone a huge slowdown.

'There are far fewer lawyers being hired, and it's taking far longer to get them placed,' Mr Stone says.

This is because obtaining approval from companies' sector heads -- who are frequently located in New York and Frankfurt -- is taking a long time, and is sometimes being pulled at the last minute, he explains.There are strong candidates, but there are not enough jobs, he says.In-house has seen a sector shift too, with a decline in financial services and travel company positions countered by a slight increase in the pharmaceutical and energy industries, says Mr Stone.But he adds it is now critical that lawyers have specialist experience of the sector to which they hope to go in-house.

'Nine months ago, lawyers could move easily from commercial positions within, say, Clifford Chance or Linklaters into media or energy firms.

Now companies only want to take people who will arrive up and running.'In the energy sector, for example, you would need to have experience working for an oil company or one of a handful of specialist firms to get a position in-house.'Outside the City, Jonathan Kay, a recruitment consultant with Crawley-based agency Search, says lawyers are still in demand.

In Brighton, for example, where Mr Kay does much of his recruitment work, company and commercial work is buoyant, and candidates from London firms are jumping to safer ships, he says.'Medium-sized provincial firms are insulated from recession because they are not so exposed to international global markets,' he explains.In predicting the length of the recruitment downturn, opinions naturally vary.Garfield Robbins' opening of new offices within the last month, in Melbourne and Hong Kong, is perhaps a sign of its confidence that the global recession will be short-lived.But then again, maybe its office Down Under is also preparing to welcome home the Australian lawyers who have been awash in the British market for the past few years.

Mr Stone says: 'Many Aussies are now looking to go home, what with the English winter coming, and the insecurity, plus the threat of oncoming recession.''Some people are saying it will be a depression like the 1930s, others are saying it's just a blip,' says Mr Boardman, adding diplomatically: 'I am at neither end of the spectrum, though I suspect it will be a reasonably severe recession, lasting most of next year if not longer.

The UK economy is not in terrible sh ape, but there are no new engines for growth.'Giles Rubens, a director at City legal consultants Hildebrandt International, says it is important to remember that the market for legal services is not homogeneous.

'It is not like the airline industry where the impact of 11 September has an equally dire effect across the sector,' he says.

'Certain firms have a much greater exposure than others, and the firms that go into the recession looking stronger are likely to come out in an enhanced market position.'Mr Rubens says firms that have built a larger flexible cost base -- either by using more temporary lawyers who can be disposed of, or by contracting out more of the their support services swiftly -- will do better.The most important thing, he says, is competition.

Firms which are leaders in their field will emerge from the recession as leaders.

But firms which have relied on being in fifth place in a busy market might not.The US firms are worth watching, for the recession is the perfect moment for them to enlarge their capabilities and hire some good UK lawyers to establish themselves firmly and emerge as serious contenders, Mr Rubens suggests.

It remains to be seen how many US firms will adopt this strategy rather than decide to resort to sackings, as several firms has already begun to do in the US.Mr Stone provides the most sanguine response.

He sees a recovery from the downturn in the new year, and predicts: 'After loads of mince pies and watching the 'Great Escape', people will be used to the war and there will be an increase in optimism.

People will start making decisions again.'It won't be back to the boom times, but it will return to the ordinary downturn mode pre-11 September,' he says, adding -- cautiously -- that this is all subject to Osama bin Laden not pulling any more stunts in the meantime.