Estimated value

Your article 'Auditors accused of scare-mongering over NHS claims' (see [2002] Gazette, 2 May, 5) quotes David Marshall, treasurer of the Association of Personal Injury Lawyers, as charging the National Audit Office with exaggerating the cost to the NHS of clinical negligence.

Our recent report on the NHS (England) summarised accounts for 2000-2001 highlighted the fact that the total liability to the NHS for current clinical negligence claims (at the end of March 2001) was 4.4 billion.

Mr Marshall called this a worst-case scenario, with no real relation to the amount actually paid out.

Clearly, the figure of 4.4 billion is not the amount of money paid out in a single year.

But not all claims are settled in the year in which they are made.

Many take a long time to settle and will be paid in future years.

So the 4.4 billion figure is a current estimate of what payments in respect of existing claims will amount to over the next ten years or so.

It is carefully estimated on the basis of the probability of settlement of all the cases of clinical negligence currently on the NHS's books.

The 4.4 billion figure is what the NHS expects to have to pay out.

The annual bill for settling clinical negligence claims will be of the order of hundreds of millions (386 million in 1999-2000); but that is perfectly consistent with a figure of billions paid out over ten years or more.

Having clear estimates of future liabilities is not scare-mongering but an essential part of good financial management.

Gabrielle Cohen, director of communications, National Audit Office