In your article ‘LPC aptitude test risks "clones"’, you quote Kevin Poulter of the Junior Lawyers Division as stating that ‘there are between 10,000 and 20,000 LPC graduates currently looking for training contracts’. This almost certainly overestimates alarmingly the oversupply of LPC graduates. No one knows how many LPC graduates are currently seeking training contracts.

The Law Society’s annual statistics show that between 1993/94 (the first year of the LPC) and 2008/09 (the last year for which statistics are available), 85,418 students passed the LPC (I have deducted the LPC graduates who took the FILEX route to qualification because they do not require a training contract). During the period 1994/95 to 2009/10, 84,115 training contracts were registered by the Law Society/SRA (I have assumed that 4,700 training contracts were registered in 2009/10 – that is not unreasonable since other sources stated that between 4,700 and 4,900 training contracts were registered that year).

No one will believe that only 1,303 more students passed the LPC over this 16-year period than obtained training contracts. The problem is that the annual statistics the Law Society receives are incomplete. They show only the number of LPC students who enrolled on the course in September and passed it that academic year. They do not record the number who passed the LPC in the academic years following their year of enrolment. Since many of these people obtain training contracts ultimately, the statistical data on entrants to the profession is inaccurate and underestimates the oversupply of LPC graduates. But since no one knows the total number of students who pass the LPC, no one knows the size of the surplus of LPC graduates. And as this surplus has grown over many years, no one knows how many LPC graduates who failed to obtain a training contract have given up and are no longer seeking a training contract. There is no evidence that 10,000 LPC graduates are currently seeking training contracts.

The fact that more students are passing the LPC than there are training contracts is not necessarily a bad thing. However, a large surplus of graduates is undesirable. The problem has grown and the issue has become more acute during the past three years as a result of the economic downturn. It is deeply distressing for many LPC students and graduates, and their families, and must be addressed. However, before we are able to address this issue sensibly, we need to gather the best information we can and tell prospective LPC students so they can make informed decisions about their choice of future career. The Law Society’s education and training committee is trying to do this and to suggest how this oversupply can most fairly be tackled and reduced.

David Dixon, Law Society Council member for South Wales; senior professional tutor, centre for professional legal studies, Cardiff Law School