Business as usual?

AS THE IRAQ CRISIS DEEPENS, JEREMY FLEMING GAUGES WHAT SORT OF EFFECT THE CONFLICT HAS HAD ON LAWYERS IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, TURKEY AND EGYPT AND HOW A WAR WOULD HIT THEIR WORK

Peter Michelmore, a partner in City firm Richards Butler's Abu Dhabi office, says 'it's business as usual', although work is down on the transactional side and has shifted - perhaps appropriately - to insurance work.

The chance of any direct effect on Abu Dhabi from a conflict with Iraq is remote, he says, because of its distance.

Five of the seven-strong team in Abu Dhabi are from the UK.

The firm has told its staff that they are free to return at any time - though no-one has - and that they should register with their embassies.

Simon Roderick, a partner with Allen & Overy's Dubai office - 13 other fee-earning staff in the office are from the UK - focuses on transactional work.

He says people have been holding off transactions, and that 'indecision will continue if the current uncertainty continues'.

Sara Hinton, who heads Trowers & Hamlins office in Cairo, to the west of Iraq, says the crisis is having little impact on the firm's projects work, but she says: 'Small and medium-sized foreign companies have not been investing in Egypt on the same scale since 9/11.'

She agrees that many acquisitions are on hold as investors wait and see what happens.

Denton Wilde Sapte is the only UK firm with a presence in Turkey, north of Iraq, with its Istanbul office.

Paul Sheridan heads the office, and works with an assistant from the UK.

He says the Turkish economy has not been good for a couple of years, and the situation is being made worse by the Iraq crisis.

Mr Sheridan says: 'If you have a billionaire in Texas and you are trying to encourage him to invest in Turkey, he looks at the map and finds Turkey, sees that it borders on Iraq, and decides not to invest.'

A short, sharp war would have two effects on the United Arab Emirates, according to Mr Roderick.

He says: 'It would be a disaster for the region.

There would be very considerable anti-US sentiment, and there is a perception that it is a war for the US and not for the region's gain.'

On the other hand, he acknowledges that there would be a great deal of reconstruction work in the aftermath, though he says that if this is led by US companies they will probably be serviced by US law firms.

But he says that there will be more scope for UK companies - and law firms - if the UK is more significantly involved in any war.

In Turkey, Mr Sheridan says the crisis 'is really pretty worrying' and the outcome is 'anyone's guess'.

He says: 'The Kurdish issue is creating continuing business uncertainty.' He adds that a resolution to the conflict would have the positive outcome of removing this uncertainty, and that an 'open' Iraq could have a good effect on Turkish business.

Ms Hinton says a war involving Britain 'might not paint a good picture of Britain in Egypt', where any military action against Iraq will be deemed by many Egyptians as unjust in part because of a perceived prejudice in US policy against the Palestinians.

However, the UK is Egypt's largest western investor, and she says that although 'large UK branded companies may suffer some boycotting' in the aftermath of a war, law firms - with a lower public profile - are unlikely to be affected.

However, another Gulf-based lawyer, who prefers not to be named, is quicker to attack Saddam Hussein.

He says: 'Saddam Hussein is responsible for holding back the economic and political development of the Middle East.' The whole region would benefit from his removal, he maintains.

And are the lawyers concerned for their personal safety? Mr Sheridan says he is not worried, but adds: 'At the back of one's head, you've got to wonder whether after this event the British and Americans will be looked at in the same way.

We're keeping our eyes and ears open and we'll monitor what happens if the situation changes.'

Mr Roderick says the chances of an individual terrorist attack in Dubai are 'slightly less than in London', and throws the question back: 'What contingency plans have you made?'

Ms Hinton says people who have been in the region a short time are more likely to be frightened, and perhaps try and leave.

But she is accustomed to Egypt, and if things look dangerous for Brits she will retreat into the Egyptian side of her dual nationality - she is married to an Egyptian.