The anticipated transatlantic merger between City firm Lovells and US firm Hogan & Hartson will spark a rash of copycat mergers in the next 12 months, a leading market commentator has predicted.

After speaking to a number of large firms considering similar moves, leading consultant Alan Hodgart predicted that there would be eight to ten major law firm mergers in the year ahead.

Last week, management at Lovells and Hogan & Hartson agreed to recommend a merger to partners. A positive result in a partnership vote in December would see the firms merging on 1 May next year, creating one of the 10 biggest firms in the world with 2,500 lawyers and combined revenues of more than £1.1bn.

Hodgart said that he would categorise the merged firm as a ‘business law’ firm, rather than a ‘global elite’ firm.

He predicted earlier this year that magic circle firms Linklaters, Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, Allen & Overy and Slaughter and May would join a number of US firms in a global elite, advising on only the biggest deals and paying the most lucrative partner salaries. Below this he predicted that 30 business law firms would emerge – larger firms set up to provide a comprehensive array of legal services (see [2009] Gazette, 17 September, 4).

Hodgart said: ‘On the surface, it looks like they’ll fit pretty well.’ Hogan & Hartson would provide Lovells with ‘a litigation edge’ with the merged firm resembling ‘a global Herbert Smith,’ he said.

Lovells managing partner David Harris said ‘strong similarities’ in the values of each firm and the ‘powerful business rationale’ were ‘compelling’.

Hogan & Hartson chairman Warren Gorrell Jr said that a merger ‘complements each firm’s capabilities from a practice, geographic, and industry perspective.’

One key catalyst is believed to be the increasing international reach of Fortune 100 clients, who are also looking to use fewer primary firms.