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In the end, is she right - I suspect so, i.e. there will be a "spike". I'm sure there is a cohort of potential petitioners who have been put off by the fault based system. Remove that and one might reasonably expect to see numbers rise in the short term. However, as seen in other jurisdictions, these figures plateau after a short period of time (years, not months!).

However, I do take issue with:
"She also cited the ministry’s impact assessment, which states that there is a risk of an unexpectedly large spike in divorce cases."
Surely if we can foresee the risk now, that does not make it unexpected? If we think there is going to be a "spike", we can - shock, horror - plan for it?

‘The removal of fault sends out the signal that marriage can be unilaterally exited on notice by one party with little, if any, available recourse for the party who has been left. There will be far less pressure, or incentive, to work at the relationship in such circumstances.’ - this still exists now, you just have to wait an age to do it.

But where is her evidence that people don't try to reconcile or salvage their marriage? Secondly, why do they need to? Isn't the point that it is their marriage, not her's, or yours, the courts, the governments etc and the approach should be less patriarchal?!