Labour’s predicted meltdown in the May elections ought to be of more than passing interest to solicitors. Reform, which is set to make huge gains, has pledged to take a wrecking ball to the Blair-era infrastructure of legal regulation and hand the job of superintendence back to the Law Society.
The polls will give a clearer signal of whether Nigel Farage’s party is on course to form the next Westminster government. Psephologists will be reading the runes especially closely this time, given recent signs that support for Reform has plateaued.
In Wales, the ramifications may be more immediate. According to a poll published on Wednesday by the Telegraph, Labour will lose control of the Senedd, in which it has held a majority since the inception of the Welsh parliament in 1999. Plaid Cymru is expected to emerge as the largest party, with Labour pushed into third behind Reform.
This matters. Or could matter. One of Plaid’s flagship policies is to resurrect the push for devolution of justice and policing, both of which remain largely reserved to Westminster.
‘The evidence is unequivocal: justice and policing should be devolved to Wales, as they are in Scotland and Northern Ireland,’ says Plaid’s manifesto. ‘Ongoing policing reforms and the scrapping of Police and Crime Commissioners by the UK Government provide new impetus, and we will pursue full devolution with the urgency this deserves.’
The party’s early programme includes bringing forward early a Welsh Tribunals Bill (unfinished business from the current session) and introducing the Level 7 legal apprenticeships that Wales continues to be peculiarly denied. Constitutionally, these reforms would be within its remit.
Seven years have elapsed since the landmark Thomas Commission report which recommended that Cardiff wrest full control of justice policy and funding from London. Since then, deadlock – more or less. The Conservatives were never going to agree. Keir Starmer’s Labour has also evinced no interest, despite the enthusiastic advocacy of former Labour counsel general for Wales Mick Antoniw.
I am no student of Welsh politics but rapid progress on devolving justice seems unlikely, even if Plaid could cobble together a coalition in favour. Aside from the electoral maths, the commission’s 78-point reform plan was never costed.
Where’s the money?
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