Lawyers feeling the impact of Iran war

Although there have been articles on the impact of the Iran war on this or that group of lawyers, I have not come across any that draw the strands together to consider the overall impact on the global profession.

The first mention must go to lawyers in Iran itself, who are facing particular oppression. Even at the start of the war, there were Iranian lawyers detained under the regime’s savage crackdown on its opponents, because they were defending those accused of opposing the government. Iranian prisons are notorious for their poor conditions, but these must have been made much worse by the impact of war. Earlier this month, it was reported that Nasrin Sotoudeh, an extraordinarily brave human rights lawyer, had again been arrested by the Iranian authorities.

Next up are lawyers in the region, both local and international. The local professions are rather small but are bulked up by international lawyers, particularly in the Gulf states. There are more than 1,500 solicitors with practising certificates in Dubai and Abu Dhabi alone. There have been articles highlighting the impact on their lives, mainly as to whether to stay or go. The lawyers have been working from home; some were away from the jurisdiction where they practise when the conflict started.

The next group in a difficult fix are government lawyers, although their difficulties are obviously nowhere near the awful predicament of those in Iran.

The last time the UK found itself in this position was before the Iraq war, in which the all-clear for an invasion was finally given by the then attorney general. Elizabeth Wilmshurst, a solicitor and deputy Foreign Office legal adviser, resigned over what she believed was an illegal war. Wilmshurst was applauded as she left the Chilcot inquiry after giving evidence; it is not often that solicitors receive spontaneous acclaim for their actions.

The legal advice this time around has been much more cautious. At first, the attorney general and prime minister were attacked for their ‘pusillanimous’ position (the description of the shadow attorney general). But their line now seems to be generally accepted as the wisest course of action.

Concern for the position of government lawyers should focus more on those advising the main combatants, particularly in the US, with its government and military lawyers. If president Trump had carried out his threat against Iran that ‘a whole civilisation will die tonight’, would there have been resignations among those two groups? (We know that many US prosecutors have resigned from the Department of Justice rather than carry out tasks which they felt conflicted with their professional obligations.)

When US senator Mark Kelly had earlier urged service members to refuse illegal orders, the Trump administration brought charges against him for seditious conspiracy and tried to demote him from his military rank.

This did not deter more than 100 US-based international law experts, professors and practitioners from writing an open letter on 13 April to express their profound concern about serious violations of international law, and alarming rhetoric by the US, Israel and Iran in the present armed conflict (tinyurl.com/2s3rsv48).

More to the point perhaps has been the slew of articles questioning whether international law is dead. There are certainly powerful people trying to kill it. International law will certainly be significantly affected, for better or worse, by the outcome of the war.

Next in the pecking order are lawyers whose work concerns an area impacted by the war. Law firms have been churning out posts about its impact on areas such as: contractual risk, force majeure and supply chain disruption claims; insurance coverage, war‑risk clauses and premium escalation; sanctions, export controls and trade compliance; energy price volatility and regulatory exposure; operational safety, duty of care and corporate travel restrictions; and cybersecurity and critical infrastructure risks. Maritime lawyers are facing particularly tricky issues apropos the Strait of Hormuz.

So lawyers dealing with relevant international commercial contracts, particularly maritime, will be busy for some years, along with those involved in arbitration.

Yet we will all be affected in due course. Energy prices are rising and inflation is coming. Law firms will be hit along with everyone else. That is why we need to look ahead to the effect on our domestic profession, particularly the part most vulnerable to economic shocks. Legal aid and high street firms will face a difficult future if the economic prophecies are correct. We should all be thinking about what we can do to avoid making their precarious position worse.

One day, we might look back and find these times interesting. But to live through them is very unsettling.